Crude oil fundamental data

Crude oil is falling maybe mainly because of Chinese exports is decreasing. The concerns are that China's economy will slow down it's growth. Overseas shipments fell 18% in Feb from a year earlier - this is the biggest fall since Aug 2009. Analysts expected 7.5% growth. China is the second biggest economy in the world & the second biggest consumer of crude oil.

I want to remind that I'm bear crude oil calendar Jun-Jul spread from 0.99 with a target at 0.30 or close a position with any result at the end of this month.

CHANGE OF TACTICS

During all this last trading year I was trying to trade according to fundamental seasonal statistical data & technical analysis. But I noticed, that technical analysis very often does not allow you to profit from your trades. When speaking about technical approach - I was trading using simple horizontal supports & resistances. I placed limit orders near this levels when seasonality starts hoping that price will fill them, but sometimes price didn't reach them & was moving straight according to seasonality. Also, in other cases, this orders where filled, but then after that price went through the level & I had to close position with a loss. Sometimes after the loss was closed the price right on the next day was moving again in a favor of the previous position. Sometimes, after loss was accepted, it was harder to find a new support level & place a new limit order. So after all, a lot of positions where closed with a loss, BUT 90% of them, eventually, if they weren't closed with a loss would end up with a profit according to a seasonality.

So now, I'll try to trade only according to a statistical seasonality patterns using calendar only. This means: I'll open a position right when seasonality starts (or +-5 days) and close it when it finishes (+-5 days). Of course, using this tactics, there might be up to 10-15% equity draw downs, but, eventually, this approach should be less stressful & more profitable. Using only fundamental & statistical data will be profitable because technical analysis does not always work as expected. Less filters means more profits.

Back to positions. May-July copper spread sell limit was moved down to 0.01, seasonality remains all the way to the end of a month. Wheat sell position remains opened also until the end of this month. New seasonality begins in Jun-Jul crude oil calendar spread. Sell limit is placed at 0.99 until the middle of a month.

And sell limit is at sugar spread May-Jul months at -0.11 also until the middle of this month.

GFJ-GFK spread buy position & crude oil future sell limit

     Small change of plans with a feeder cattle future spread buy limit - I moved buy limit up to -0.75 and it was filled today. Close position if day closes below -0.85 or with a $650 profit, because on average price moved up 1.3 cents. Seasonality expires on the beginning of April.

Starting this month crude oil Jun-Jul spread starts falling & this continues to the April 10th approximately. Also right now this crude oil spread is almost on all time highs during last 14 years. I placed sell limit order at 1.15. Close a position with a loss if the day closes above 1.18 or with $500 profit. Seasonality expires in the middle of April.

Oil fundamentals

In the most parts of the United States remains cold weather which gives support to oil prices and its derivatives (gasoline and oil). Yesterday CLH4 price again exceeded the psychologically strong level $100.00. Industry analytics suggest the possibility of further growth in the coming days. Shortages in distillate stocks last week may support commodity prices growth. Weather forecasters predict worsening weather in the coming days again: cold and snowstorms in southern United States (Atlanta, Georgia ...). Industry analytics are predicting significant decrease in distillate output from Energy Information Administration (EIA) report. Major USA indices are growing last week and this also may support the rise of commodity prices. At the moment, prices for Light Sweet CLH4 are at 100.00

Moving buy limit in Gasoline spread up to 0.0270, take profit at 0.0320 and stop loss if day closes below 0.0260.

Crude oil spread filled at 1.0

So today price took our sell limit at 1.0 June-July Crude oil spread and now we put a buy limit at 0.78, because during last 14 years average profit during this time was $220. And anyway position has to be closed if the day closes above 1.02-1.03 or on around February 7th-9th.

Crude oil June-July

Chart above shows that crude oil June-July calendar spread usualy falls starting from the middle of January and until the end of first February's decade. This winter is very cold, so the demand still stays high on crude oil and refined products. But anyway lets try to sell at price 1.0. Exit position if day closes above 1.02. Average profit during last 14 years was $220 on 1 contract position size.