During all this last trading year I was trying to trade according to fundamental seasonal statistical data & technical analysis. But I noticed, that technical analysis very often does not allow you to profit from your trades. When speaking about technical approach - I was trading using simple horizontal supports & resistances. I placed limit orders near this levels when seasonality starts hoping that price will fill them, but sometimes price didn't reach them & was moving straight according to seasonality. Also, in other cases, this orders where filled, but then after that price went through the level & I had to close position with a loss. Sometimes after the loss was closed the price right on the next day was moving again in a favor of the previous position. Sometimes, after loss was accepted, it was harder to find a new support level & place a new limit order. So after all, a lot of positions where closed with a loss, BUT 90% of them, eventually, if they weren't closed with a loss would end up with a profit according to a seasonality.
So now, I'll try to trade only according to a statistical seasonality patterns using calendar only. This means: I'll open a position right when seasonality starts (or +-5 days) and close it when it finishes (+-5 days). Of course, using this tactics, there might be up to 10-15% equity draw downs, but, eventually, this approach should be less stressful & more profitable. Using only fundamental & statistical data will be profitable because technical analysis does not always work as expected. Less filters means more profits.
Back to positions. May-July copper spread sell limit was moved down to 0.01, seasonality remains all the way to the end of a month. Wheat sell position remains opened also until the end of this month. New seasonality begins in Jun-Jul crude oil calendar spread. Sell limit is placed at 0.99 until the middle of a month.
And sell limit is at sugar spread May-Jul months at -0.11 also until the middle of this month.
