Regular monthly USDA grains report, which was released earlier this week, was designated as "bullish" for the world wheat stock exchanges. In the preceding days blizzards and snowstorms in the South and Midwest USA have provided good snow to the fields of "wheat belt". Which led to some reduction in wheat futures contracts at the end of the previous week.
The USDA report noted increase in exports of U.S. wheat. And also decline is predicted in world wheat stocks, including United States. Thus, the "bullish" report gave rise to wheat prices at the beginning of this week. Meanwhile, it is known that in the second decade of February on U.S. trading floors wheat prices start falling. Some easing of tensions starts after the January seasonal rise in prices caused by frost and natural concern for the traders. Protective snow "blanket" in U.S. "wheat" belt reliably protects the soil from the last non-aggressive rare frosts and simultaneously with the comming of warmer days gives seeds some food. During this period, until mid-April, there are almost no reasons that could cause concerns of traders. Only some local weather conditions sometimes can lead to a slight rise in prices, which however do not violate the general total down trend.
I'm sending a sell limit order on May-Sep Wheat at -11.4. Profit target is $750 because on average during last 14 years price closed with this size of profit. Position is closing if day closes above -11 level.
